| UDC 556.06 |
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The Ice-Break Dates Forecast Method for the Upper Navigable Section of the Kolyma River under Instability Conditions |
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| © 2018 M. V. Ushakov |
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| North-East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute n. a. N. A. Shilo FEB RAS, Magadan |
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| E-mail:
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| For the first time, the medium-term forecast methodology was developed to predict the ice-break dates for the upper navigable section of the Kolyma River under anthropogenic and climatic changes in the hydrological regime. Spectral analysis showed that ice-break beginning dates have a 9–10-year cycle. Predictors for the forecast were the dates of the air temperature transition through 0°C in the spring and the Polar-Eurasian index of atmospheric circulation for November with a time lag of 9 years. The 9-year lag, is apparently connected with the 9–10-year cycle of ice break-up dates. Under instability conditions, the sliding regression method was used in developing the forecast model. The average forecast advancement is half a month. The ratio of the mean square error of forecasts to the standard deviation was 0.50; the average success, 84.2%. For the convenience of making forecasts, a computer program has been developed. |
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| Keywords: anthropogenic and climatic changes in the hydrological regime, prognostic model, spectral analysis, sliding regression, Kolyma. |
| Full text [In Russian] |
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